Historic Highs and Lows in Unemployment
In my previous post in this series, I closed by noting that proponents of “right to work” might very well want to emphasize that eight of the ten states with the lowest current unemployment averages are “right to work” states.
Those states are Virginia, Oklahoma, Iowa, Wyoming, Utah, South Dakota, Nebraska, and North Dakota.
I have highlighted them in bold in the table that follows, which compares current unemployment rates with historic high and low unemployment rates.
Current Unemployment Rates for States and Historical Highs/Lows |
|||||
Mar. 2013p |
Historical High |
Historical Low |
|||
State |
Rate |
Date |
Rate |
Date |
Rate |
Alabama |
7.2 |
Dec. 1982 |
14.3 |
Apr. 2007 |
3.2 |
Alaska |
6.2 |
June 1986 |
11.5 |
Apr. 2007 |
5.9 |
Arizona |
7.9 |
Jan. 1983 |
11.6 |
July 2007 |
3.5 |
Arkansas |
7.2 |
July 1983 |
10.1 |
Nov. 2000 |
4.0 |
California |
9.4 |
Oct. 2010 |
12.4 |
Jan. 2001 |
4.7 |
Colorado |
7.1 |
Nov. 2010 |
9.1 |
Jan. 2001 |
2.6 |
Connecticut |
8.0 |
Dec. 2010 |
9.4 |
Oct. 2000 |
2.1 |
Delaware |
7.3 |
Dec. 1976 |
9.3 |
Feb. 1989 |
2.8 |
District of Columbia |
8.5 |
Feb. 1983 |
11.6 |
May 1989 |
4.8 |
Florida |
7.5 |
Mar. 2010 |
11.4 |
Aug. 2006 |
3.3 |
Georgia |
8.4 |
Jan. 2010 |
10.4 |
Dec. 2000 |
3.3 |
Hawaii |
5.1 |
Jan. 1976 |
9.9 |
Dec. 2006 |
2.3 |
Idaho |
6.2 |
Feb. 1983 |
9.6 |
Mar. 2007 |
2.7 |
Illinois |
9.5 |
Feb. 1983 |
12.9 |
Feb. 1999 |
4.2 |
Indiana |
8.7 |
Jan. 1983 |
12.7 |
Apr. 1999 |
2.6 |
Iowa |
4.9 |
Mar. 1983 |
8.6 |
Oct. 1999 |
2.5 |
Kansas |
5.6 |
Aug. 2009 |
7.5 |
Apr. 1979 |
3.0 |
Kentucky |
8.0 |
Jan. 1983 |
12.0 |
June 2000 |
4.1 |
Louisiana |
6.2 |
Nov. 1986 |
12.8 |
July 2006 |
3.6 |
Maine |
7.1 |
Jan. 1977 |
9.0 |
Jan. 2001 |
3.1 |
Maryland |
6.6 |
Nov. 1982 |
8.4 |
Feb. 2008 |
3.3 |
Massachusetts |
6.4 |
Jan. 1976 |
11.1 |
Oct. 2000 |
2.6 |
Michigan |
8.5 |
Dec. 1982 |
16.8 |
Mar. 2000 |
3.3 |
Minnesota |
5.4 |
Dec. 1982 |
9.1 |
Mar. 1999 |
2.5 |
Mississippi |
9.4 |
Apr. 1983 |
13.5 |
Apr. 2001 |
4.9 |
Missouri |
6.7 |
Feb. 1983 |
10.6 |
Jan. 2000 |
2.8 |
Montana |
5.6 |
Mar. 1983 |
8.8 |
Dec. 2006 |
3.1 |
Nebraska |
3.8 |
Feb. 1983 |
6.7 |
Feb. 1998 |
2.2 |
Nevada |
9.7 |
Oct. 2010 |
14.0 |
Apr. 2000 |
3.8 |
New Hampshire |
5.7 |
Sept. 1992 |
7.6 |
May 1987 |
2.1 |
New Jersey |
9.0 |
Dec. 1976 |
10.7 |
July 2000 |
3.6 |
New Mexico |
6.9 |
Mar. 1983 |
10.0 |
June 2007 |
3.4 |
New York |
8.2 |
Nov. 1976 |
10.3 |
Apr. 1988 |
4.0 |
North Carolina |
9.2 |
Feb. 2010 |
11.3 |
Mar. 1999 |
3.1 |
North Dakota |
3.3 |
Feb. 1983 |
6.8 |
July 2001 |
2.6 |
Ohio |
7.1 |
Jan. 1983 |
13.9 |
Jan. 2001 |
3.8 |
Oklahoma |
5.0 |
June 1983 |
9.2 |
Dec. 2000 |
2.8 |
Oregon |
8.2 |
Jan. 1983 |
12.1 |
Feb. 1995 |
4.7 |
Pennsylvania |
7.9 |
Mar. 1983 |
12.9 |
Mar. 2000 |
4.0 |
Rhode Island |
9.1 |
Feb. 2010 |
11.9 |
July 1988 |
2.9 |
South Carolina |
8.4 |
Jan. 2010 |
11.9 |
Mar. 1998 |
3.2 |
South Dakota |
4.3 |
Feb. 1983 |
6.0 |
Mar. 2000 |
2.5 |
Tennessee |
7.9 |
Jan. 1983 |
12.8 |
May 2000 |
3.9 |
Texas |
6.4 |
Nov. 1986 |
9.3 |
Jan. 2001 |
4.2 |
Utah |
4.9 |
Mar. 1983 |
10.0 |
Mar. 2007 |
2.4 |
Vermont |
4.1 |
Jan. 1976 |
8.8 |
Apr. 2000 |
2.4 |
Virginia |
5.3 |
Jan. 1983 |
7.8 |
Dec. 2000 |
2.2 |
Washington |
7.3 |
Nov. 1982 |
12.2 |
May 2007 |
4.4 |
West Virginia |
7.0 |
Mar. 1983 |
18.1 |
Mar. 2008 |
3.9 |
Wisconsin |
7.1 |
Jan. 1983 |
11.5 |
Feb. 2000 |
3.0 |
Wyoming |
4.9 |
Jan. 1987 |
9.1 |
Apr. 1979 |
2.3 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
It should be fairly obvious that these states have always been among those with the lowest unemployment. Only one, Utah, has ever had double-digit unemployment, and Utah’s historic high has been just 10%.
Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota have never had unemployment rates above 7%.
Even more telling is that the historic low unemployment rate in all eight of these states has been less than 3% and generally very close to 2%. In most other states—in particular, in most more populous states—the historic lows in the unemployment rate have been between 3% and 4.5%.
In general, employment has remained more stable in states with small populations because (1) core public- and private-sector service jobs are relatively immune to economic downturns, (2) a higher percentage of the small population is self-employed in farming, ranching, small businesses, and the professions, and (3) there is little employment in large, more volatile industries because there simply isn’t a sufficient workforce to support such industries. (Manufacturing employment will be the topic of the next post in this series.)
The only state among these eight with a sizable population is Virginia, and since World War II, employment in the Federal offices and other facilities in northern Virginia have been an increasingly significant factor in that state’s economy.
Indeed, one might argue that far from demonstrating the benefits of “right to work” states, this chart actually exposes the fallacy that there are benefits.
One should note that beyond the eight states that have been the focus of this post, only two “right to work” states– Texas and Idaho– have had historic high unemployment rates under 10%.
So, 10 of the 24 “right to work” states have historic high unemployment rates under 10%, compared to 10 of the 26 pro-labor states.
Moreover, if one excludes Indiana and Michigan, the remaining 10 states with historic high unemployment rates of 12% or more are also evenly split between pro-labor and “right to work” states.
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